8/13 Update: Tropical Storm Erin and Potential Development SW Gulf

Erin remains a tropical storm this morning. Visible satellite in the image below showing nice banding but the storm, as expected, has not intensified to a hurricane just yet.

Erin is still forecast to become a hurricane over the next day or so, then perhaps a major hurricane rated category 3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the weekend. the 5-day track cone graphic shows a steady westward, then west-northwestward movement over that period. Its moving fairly quickly now, chugging west at around 17 mph.

Where does to go from there? Even though shifts may still occur, ensemble models now fairly consistent showing a bend to the north with the track before hitting the CONUS. It may be a close call for the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and especially Bermuda, which could still see a direct hit.

What about the disturbance over the Yucatan heading into the SW Gulf? The National Hurricane Center in their latest outlook gives that disturbance a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next several days in the yellow area shown.

This system should be relatively weak, perhaps a tropical depression or weak tropical storm IF it does develop. In any case could enhance rainfall over Mexico and perhaps portions of Texas as we head through the weekend.

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