High-end Severe Weather for OK and TX Through Tonight
Stay Weather Aware!
The Day 1 Convective Outlook shows a few different areas of concern with severe weather potential across the Southeast United States (level 2, “Slight Risk”) and a higher end threat across Texas and Oklahoma, especially along the Red River Valley (level 4 or Moderate Risk).
Focussing on the level 4 threat, it is looking like a high-end severe weather day and night across portions of TX and OK. Tornado, large hail and damaging wind risk areas shown along with forecast radar loop from 12Z run of HRRR model looped from 5 pm today (Sunday) to 7 am Monday. Hatched area on wind plot shows area with potentially hurricane force wind gusts. Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds all possible today. Most widespread severe likely tonight but cells ahead of main complex may be as well.
All hazards will be possible. The most common, widespread damage will likely be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts with the main complex tonight. In the Convective Outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center has the option of indicating potential for “significant severe” by hatching on the graphics. Specifically, a "hatched area" indicates a 10% or greater probability of:
Tornadoes: An EF2 or stronger tornado occurring within 25 miles of any point within the hatched area.
Hail: Hailstones measuring 2 inches or larger in diameter within 25 miles of any point within the hatched area.
Damaging Winds: Thunderstorm wind gusts reaching 65 knots (74 mph) or higher within 25 miles of any point within the hatched area.
Note the large hatched area on the Severe Wind Outlook below suggests potential for widespread damaging wind gusts at or above hurricane force! The hatching on the severe hail map is noteworthy as well.
There is a possibility that tonight’s squall line could be categorized as a “derecho.” A nice informational pages on these types of storms are found here:
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/derechos
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm
Basically a derecho is a very long lived and damaging thunderstorm complex. A storm is classified as a derecho if wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles and has wind gusts of at least 58 mph or greater along most of the length of the storm's path.
If you are in the path of the storms, stay weather aware! Be ready to shelter if need be. Have a way to get NWS warnings.